Journal of Public Economics · 2023 · Zachary S. Fone、Joseph J. Sabia、Resul Cesur
中文摘要
已有研究表明，低技能个体有薪酬更高的工作可供选择能够减少犯罪。本研究考察最低工资对青少年和年轻成年人被捕情况的影响；最低工资是旨在提高低技能劳动者工资的最主要劳动政策之一。利用1998—2016年《统一犯罪报告》的数据和双重差分方法，我们发现，最低工资提高1%与16至24岁人群因财产犯罪被捕的次数增加0.2%至0.3%相关，这一效应由盗窃相关被捕次数的增加所驱动。我们估计的弹性量级表明，《提高工资法案》中提议的15美元联邦最低工资可能使盗窃案件增加约30.9万起。失去工作是解释我们研究结果的一个重要机制；对1997年全国青年纵向调查中受影响劳动者的补充分析显示，这一效应集中在受最低工资上调约束的劳动者中。最后，我们没有发现最低工资上调影响暴力犯罪被捕次数的证据。
Abstract
The availability of higher-paying jobs for low-skilled individuals has been documented to reduce crime. This study explores the impact of one of the most prominent labor policies designed to provide higher wages for low-skilled workers — the minimum wage — on teenage and young adult arrests. Using data from the 1998–2016 Uniform Crime Reports and a difference-in-differences approach, we find that a 1 percent increase in the minimum wage is associated with a 0.2 to 0.3 percent increase in property crime arrests among 16-to-24-year-olds, an effect driven by an increase in larceny-related arrests. The magnitudes of our estimated elasticities suggest that a $15 Federal minimum wage, proposed as part of the Raise the Wage Act, could generate approximately 309,000 additional larcenies. Job loss emerges as an important mechanism to explain our findings, and supplemental analyses of affected workers in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 show that this effect is concentrated among workers bound by minimum wage increases. Finally, we find no evidence that minimum wage hikes impact violent crime arrests.