← ireadpaper · 顶刊中的公共政策研究

衡量美国求职者总人数

Measuring the Total Number of US Job Seekers
The Economic Journal · 2024 · Christine Braun

中文摘要

我记录了自 1980 年以来美国被归类为不在劳动力队伍中的求职者比例的大幅上升。我提出了一个经调整的失业率以计入这些求职者;该调整使失业率上升 5.2 个百分点,消除了失业率的下降趋势,并将波动性降低 50%。我还构建了一个衡量经济中总求职努力的指标,其中包括在职求职者。最后,使用经调整的失业率或总求职者率对菲利普斯曲线的估计显示,在 2008 年衰退后的时期,产出—通胀关系没有出现平坦化迹象。

Abstract

Abstract I document a substantial rise in the proportion of job seekers who are classified as out of the labour force in the United States since 1980. I propose an adjusted unemployment rate to account for these searchers; the adjustment increases the unemployment rate by 5.2 percentage points, rids the unemployment rate of its downward trend and decreases volatility by 50%. I also construct a measure of total search effort in the economy, including employed job seekers. Finally, estimates of the Phillips curve using the adjusted unemployment rate or total searcher rate show no sign of a flattening output-inflation relationship in the post-2008 recession period.
在 ireadpaper 查看全部 →