Does Getting Forecasts Earlier Matter? Evidence from Winter Advisories and Vehicle Crashes
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy · 2025 · [{"name": "Vaibhav Anand", "affiliation": ["St. John's University"]}]
中文摘要
大量投资被用于提高预报的准确性和更早的可获得性。然而，更长的预报提前期究竟有多大价值尚不清楚。利用美国冬季天气预警与车辆碰撞的数据，我表明，提前期更长的预警能够减少碰撞，即便其准确性低于提前期较短的预警。此外，边际收益并不随提前期的延长而递减。这些收益来自个人和机构两方面的响应：当预警更早到达时，人们前往的地点更少，除雪队则加强道路维护作业。上述结果对如何提供有效预报具有政策含义。（JEL Q54, Q58, R41）
Abstract
Significant investments are directed toward improving the accuracy and early availability of forecasts. However, the value of longer lead times on forecasts is unclear. Using data on winter weather advisories and vehicle crashes in the United States, I show that advisories with longer lead times reduce crashes, even when they are less accurate than advisories with shorter lead times. Further, marginal benefits do not decrease with lead time. The benefits come from individual and institutional responses. When advisories arrive earlier, people visit fewer places, and snowplow crews intensify the road maintenance operations. These results have policy implications for providing effective forecasts. (JEL Q54, Q58, R41)