中文摘要
我们利用44个发展中国家119项人口与健康调查的合并数据，通过估计祖母与母亲两代在丧失子女经历上的关联，研究不平等的代际持续性。与本国同龄女性相比，至少有一名兄弟姐妹在儿童期死亡的女性，曾经历至少一名自己的子女死亡的胜算（odds）高出39%；在49岁时，相应的概率差异为7个百分点。纳入地区固定效应后，估计的死亡率代际持续性降低了47%；社会经济协变量所能解释的部分则少得多。在各国内部，随着时间推移，代际持续性随总体儿童死亡率的下降而下降，因此高死亡率家系从死亡率下降中获益相对更多。（JEL I12, J13, J16, J62, O15）
Abstract
We study the intergenerational persistence of inequality by estimating grandmother-mother associations in the loss of a child, using pooled data from 119 Demographic and Health Surveys in 44 developing countries. Compared with compatriots of the same age, women with at least one sibling who died in childhood face 39 percent higher odds of having experienced at least one own-child death, or 7 percentage points at age 49. Place fixed effects reduce estimated mortality persistence by 47 percent; socioeconomic covariates explain far less. Within countries over time, persistence falls with aggregate child mortality, so that mortality decline disproportionately benefits high-mortality lineages. (JEL I12, J13, J16, J62, O15)