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具有长期收入与价格效应的结构变迁

Structural Change With Long‐Run Income and Price Effects
Econometrica · 2021 · Diego Comín、Danial Lashkari、Martí Mestieri

中文摘要

我们提出了一个新的多部门增长模型,其特征为非位似、常替代弹性的偏好,并能够刻画任意数量部门结构变迁的长期需求与供给驱动因素。该模型与农业的下降、制造业的驼峰形演变以及服务业随时间的上升相一致。我们使用美国和印度的家庭层面数据,以及39个国家战后时期的历史加总层面面板数据,估计了由该模型导出的需求系统。估计出的模型简明地解释了在富裕经济体、奇迹经济体和发展中经济体中观察到的部门再配置的广泛模式。我们的估计支持在时间、收入水平和国家之间存在强烈的非位似性。我们发现,收入效应解释了部门再配置在各国国内演变的绝大部分。

Abstract

We present a new multi‐sector growth model that features nonhomothetic, constant elasticity of substitution preferences, and accommodates long‐run demand and supply drivers of structural change for an arbitrary number of sectors. The model is consistent with the decline in agriculture, the hump‐shaped evolution of manufacturing, and the rise of services over time. We estimate the demand system derived from the model using household‐level data from the United States and India, as well as historical aggregate‐level panel data for 39 countries during the postwar period. The estimated model parsimoniously accounts for the broad patterns of sectoral reallocation observed among rich, miracle, and developing economies. Our estimates support the presence of strong nonhomotheticity across time, income levels, and countries. We find that income effects account for the bulk of the within‐country evolution of sectoral reallocation.
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