2002年布什钢铁关税的本地劳动力市场效应
Local Labor Market Effects of the 2002 Bush Steel Tariffs
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy · 2025 · [{"name": "James Lake", "affiliation": ["University of Tennessee at Knoxville"]}, {"name": "Ding Liu", "affiliation": ["Analysis Group (United States)"]}]
中文摘要
乔治·W. 布什总统于2002年初对钢铁征收保障性关税。本文利用美国投入产出表和广义双重差分方法, 依据地方劳动力市场对钢铁作为投入品以及作为本地生产组成部分的依赖程度, 分析这些关税对地方劳动力市场就业的影响。这些关税并未提振当地钢铁业就业, 反而在布什取消关税后的多年里显著压低了钢铁消费行业的当地就业。关税还导致钢铁密集型制造业企业持续退出, 表明工厂层面的固定进入成本在将临时性冲击转化为持久性结果的过程中发挥了作用。(JEL F13, L61, R23)
Abstract
President George W. Bush imposed safeguard tariffs on steel in early 2002. Using US input-output tables and a generalized difference-in-difference methodology, we analyze the local labor market employment effects of these tariffs depending on the local labor market’s reliance on steel as an input and as part of local production. The tariffs did not boost local steel employment but substantially depressed local employment in steel-consuming industries for many years after Bush removed them. The tariffs also led to a persistent exit of steel-intensive manufacturing establishments, suggesting a role for plant-level fixed entry costs in translating the temporary shock into persistent outcomes. (JEL F13, L61, R23)