← ireadpaper · 顶刊中的公共政策研究

组织中的政策持续性与漂移

Policy Persistence and Drift in Organizations
Econometrica · 2021 · Germán Gieczewski

中文摘要

本文对允许成员自由进入和退出的组织(如城市和工会)的演化进行了建模。在每一期,现有成员为组织选择一项政策。政策变动吸引新来者并驱离不满成员,从而改变未来政策制定者的集合。由此产生的反馈效应使组织滑向一条“滑坡”,收敛于一个短视稳定政策,即使参与人是前瞻性的也是如此;但参与人越有耐心,收敛速度越慢。该模型对稳态和转移动态给出了易于处理的刻画。该分析还扩展至组织可以排斥成员的情形,例如赋予公民选举权与移民。

Abstract

This paper models the evolution of organizations that allow free entry and exit of members, such as cities and trade unions. In each period, current members choose a policy for the organization. Policy changes attract newcomers and drive away dissatisfied members, altering the set of future policymakers. The resulting feedback effects take the organization down a “slippery slope” that converges to a myopically stable policy, even if the agents are forward‐looking, but convergence becomes slower the more patient they are. The model yields a tractable characterization of the steady state and the transition dynamics. The analysis is also extended to situations in which the organization can exclude members, such as enfranchisement and immigration.
在 ireadpaper 查看全部 →