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基于观测数据的政策学习

Policy Learning With Observational Data
Econometrica · 2021 · Susan Athey、Stefan Wager

中文摘要

在许多领域,实践者试图利用观测数据学习一种满足特定应用约束(如预算、公平性、简洁性或其他函数形式约束)的处理分配政策。例如,政策可能被限定为基于一小组易于观测的个体特征所构建的决策树形式。受半参数有效估计理论的启发,我们针对这一问题提出了一种新方法。我们的方法既可用于优化二元处理,也可用于优化对连续处理的无穷小推动,并且能够利用观测数据,其中因果效应可采用多种策略识别,包括基于可观测变量的选择以及工具变量。在给定将所有人均分配至处理的因果效应的双重稳健估计量的条件下,我们提出了一种选择对谁进行处理的算法,并为所得政策的渐近功利主义遗憾建立了强有力的保证。

Abstract

In many areas, practitioners seek to use observational data to learn a treatment assignment policy that satisfies application‐specific constraints, such as budget, fairness, simplicity, or other functional form constraints. For example, policies may be restricted to take the form of decision trees based on a limited set of easily observable individual characteristics. We propose a new approach to this problem motivated by the theory of semiparametrically efficient estimation. Our method can be used to optimize either binary treatments or infinitesimal nudges to continuous treatments, and can leverage observational data where causal effects are identified using a variety of strategies, including selection on observables and instrumental variables. Given a doubly robust estimator of the causal effect of assigning everyone to treatment, we develop an algorithm for choosing whom to treat, and establish strong guarantees for the asymptotic utilitarian regret of the resulting policy.
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