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通过时变波动率识别冲击

Identifying Shocks via Time-Varying Volatility
Review of Economic Studies · 2021 · Daniel Lewis

中文摘要

我提出利用冲击方差任意随机过程所蕴含的平方新息自协方差结构,对SVAR进行识别(直至冲击排序)。无需对方差过程施加参数假设即可获得这些高阶矩。相比之下,以往利用异方差性的方法依赖于新息协方差的路径,而该路径仅在对方差过程施加特定参数假设时方能从数据中恢复。识别条件是可检验的。我在模拟中将该识别方案与现有方法进行了比较,并为估计与推断提供了指导。我使用该方法估计了财政乘数,发现减税的财政乘数峰值为0.86,政府支出的财政乘数峰值为0.75。我发现税收冲击在更长的时期上解释了产出更多的变异。与基于某些主流方法的估计相比,我的估计所蕴含的实证含义与理论及叙事记录更为一致。

Abstract

Abstract I propose to identify an SVAR, up to shock ordering, using the autocovariance structure of the squared innovations implied by an arbitrary stochastic process for the shock variances. These higher moments are available without parametric assumptions on the variance process. In contrast, previous approaches exploiting heteroskedasticity rely on the path of innovation covariances, which can only be recovered from the data under specific parametric assumptions on the variance process. The conditions for identification are testable. I compare the identification scheme to existing approaches in simulations and provide guidance for estimation and inference. I use the methodology to estimate fiscal multipliers peaking at 0.86 for tax cuts and 0.75 for government spending. I find that tax shocks explain more variation in output at longer horizons. The empirical implications of my estimates are more consistent with theory and the narrative record than those based on some leading approaches.
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