Workforce Composition, Productivity, and Labour Regulations in a Compensating Differentials Theory of Informality
Review of Economic Studies · 2021 · Daniel Haanwinckel、Rodrigo R. Soares
中文摘要
我们构建了一个非正规劳动力市场搜寻模型，纳入了包括最低工资在内的现实劳动法规，以及异质性劳动者和企业。随着企业和劳动者决定是否遵守法规，非正规部门中企业规模较小、工资较低的特征内生形成。由于技能劳动者与非技能劳动者在生产中并非完全替代，该模型能够独特地刻画影响技能回报的冲击（如教育水平上升）对非正规性的影响。该模型还再现了与其他框架不相容的经验模式：正规部门和非正规部门中均存在技能劳动者与非技能劳动者，技能劳动者占比随企业规模增大而上升，以及正规部门工资溢价和企业规模工资溢价随技能水平而变化。我们利用巴西2003年的数据估计该模型，并表明该模型成功预测了2003年至2012年间观察到的劳动力市场变化。在一系列不同假设下，劳动力构成的变化似乎是这一时期非正规性下降的主要驱动因素。基于估计模型的政策模拟提示，累进工薪税是减少非正规性的一种具有成本效益的方式。
Abstract
Abstract We develop a search model of informal labour markets with realistic labour regulations, including minimum wage, and heterogeneous workers and firms. Smaller firms and lower wages in the informal sector emerge endogenously as firms and workers decide whether to comply with regulations. Because skilled and unskilled workers are imperfect substitutes in production, the model uniquely captures the informality consequences of shocks that affect returns to skill, such as rising educational levels. The model also reproduces empirical patterns incompatible with other frameworks: the presence of skilled and unskilled workers in the formal and informal sectors, the rising share of skilled workers by firm size, and formal and firm-size wage premiums that vary by skill level. We estimate the model using 2003 data from Brazil and show that it successfully predicts labour market changes observed between 2003 and 2012. Under a range of different assumptions, changes in workforce composition appear as the main drivers of the reduction in informality over this period. Policy simulations using the estimated model suggest that progressive payroll taxes are a cost-effective way to reduce informality.