中文摘要
本文将新加坡规模最大的公立大学的学生行政记录与收入调查数据相匹配，估计了对于原本会以学士学位毕业的学生而言，额外接受一年本科高年级教育的回报。我们采用断点回归设计，利用了某些学院依据成绩规则决定第四年（荣誉年）入学资格这一事实。与成绩刚好未达到门槛的学生相比，三年级平均成绩略高于门槛的学生完成第四年学习的可能性在统计上显著更高，且毕业后的收入也更高。由此推算，额外一年大学教育在毕业六个月后的收入回报约为12%。关联的税收行政数据证实，收入增益在更长期内持续存在，至少延续至毕业后四年。此外，即使大学降低门槛以鼓励更多学生入读第四年，该回报仍然可观，这表明该效应并非完全由学生能力的信号传递所驱动。
Abstract
This paper estimates the returns to an additional year of advanced undergraduate education among students who would otherwise graduate with a bachelor’s degree using administrative student records merged with survey data on earnings from the largest public university in Singapore. We use a regression discontinuity design that exploits the fact that in some faculties, enrollment in the fourth (honors) year is governed by a grade-based eligibility rule. Students with average grades in their third year just above the threshold are significantly more likely to complete the fourth year and have higher earnings after graduation relative to students who narrowly missed the grade cutoff. The implied earnings return to the additional year of college is about 12 % six months after graduation. Linked administrative tax data confirm persistent gains in the longer run for at least 4 years after graduation. Moreover, the return remains substantial even after the university lowers the threshold to encourage more students to enroll in the fourth year, suggesting an effect not entirely driven by signaling of student ability.