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选举会影响移民吗?来自法国市镇的证据

Do elections affect immigration? Evidence from French municipalities
Journal of Public Economics · 2023 · Benoît Schmutz、Grégory Verdugo

中文摘要

利用法国三十年的市镇选举数据,我们表明,选举结果会影响各市镇的移民占比。相较于右翼市长当选的市镇,左翼市长当选的市镇人口中的移民占比在选举后六年内多增长1.5个百分点,十二年内多增长3个百分点。这些效应在很大程度上由公共住房建设方面的党派差异以及现有公共住房单元内人口构成的变化所驱动。这些效应还与更大的在任者优势相关,这与策略性党派行为模型相一致。

Abstract

Using thirty years of municipal elections in France, we show that election results affect the share of immigrants across municipalities. In municipalities where a left- instead of right-wing mayor has been elected, the share of immigrants in the population grows faster by 1.5 p.p. within six years after the elections, and by 3 p.p. within twelve years. To a large extent, these effects are driven by partisan differences in public housing constructions and changes in the composition of the population within existing public housing units. They also are associated with greater incumbency advantage, in line with a model of strategic partisan behavior.
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