The macroeconomic effects of a carbon tax to meet the U.S. Paris agreement target: The role of firm creation and technology adoption
Journal of Public Economics · 2022 · Alan Finkelstein Shapiro、Gilbert E. Metcalf
中文摘要
我们在一个包含污染外部性和均衡失业的框架中，分析碳税的劳动力市场效应和总量效应。我们的模型纳入了劳动参与以及受碳税影响的两个调整边际：（1）企业创建和（2）绿色生产技术采纳。一项使碳排放减少35%的碳税政策——这一减排幅度与拜登政府新的《巴黎协定》承诺大致一致——可以对消费和产出产生温和的长期正向影响，增加使用绿色技术的企业数量及其占比，并提高劳动参与率，而失业率仅有微小变化。在短期内，向更高碳税水平的调整并不一定伴随着产出和消费的损失或失业率的大幅上升。若不考虑绿色技术采纳，同一政策则会对劳动收入、消费和产出产生较大的短期和长期不利影响。我们的研究结果强调，在评估碳税的劳动力市场效应和总量效应时，应考虑内生技术采纳的重要性。
Abstract
We analyze the labor market and aggregate effects of a carbon tax in a framework with pollution externalities and equilibrium unemployment. Our model incorporates labor force participation and two margins of adjustment influenced by carbon taxes: (1) firm creation and (2) green production-technology adoption. A carbon-tax policy that reduces carbon emissions by 35 percent—broadly consistent with Biden Administration’s new Paris Agreement commitment—can generate mild positive long-run effects on consumption and output, an expansion in the number and fraction of firms that use green technologies, and greater labor force participation, with marginal changes in the unemployment rate. In the short term, the adjustment to a higher carbon tax need not be accompanied by losses in output and consumption or a substantial increase in unemployment. Abstracting from green technology adoption implies that the same policy has substantial adverse short- and long-term effects on labor income, consumption, and output. Our findings highlight the importance of considering endogenous technology adoption in assessments of the labor market and aggregate effects of a carbon tax.