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风险偏好与货币政策的风险承担渠道

Risk Appetite and the Risk-Taking Channel of Monetary Policy
Journal of Economic Perspectives · 2023 · Michael D. Bauer、Ben Bernanke、Eric Milstein

中文摘要

货币政策部分通过改变投资者的风险偏好来影响金融市场和更广泛的经济。本文通过重新审视并拓展对联邦公开市场委员会公告的事件研究分析,为这一所谓的货币政策风险承担渠道提供了新证据。我们记录了未预期的货币政策变化对来自股票、固定收益、信贷和外汇市场的风险指标的显著影响。我们基于这些指标的共同成分构建了一个新的风险偏好指数。未预期的货币宽松导致该指数强劲且持续地上升,而未预期的货币紧缩则产生相反的效果。这与货币政策在很大程度上通过影响风险偏好来影响资产价格的观点一致。我们讨论了风险承担渠道对货币政策传导、最优货币政策和金融稳定的含义。

Abstract

Monetary policy affects financial markets and the broader economy in part by changing the risk appetite of investors. This article provides new evidence for this so-called risk-taking channel of monetary policy by revisiting and extending event-study analysis of Federal Open Market Committee announcements. We document significant effects of unexpected monetary policy changes on risk indicators drawn from equity, fixed-income, credit, and foreign exchange markets. We develop a new index of risk appetite based on the common component of these indicators. Surprise monetary easing leads to strong and persistent increases in our index, and vice versa for tightening surprises, consistent with the view that monetary policy affects asset prices in large part through its effects on risk appetite. We discuss the implications of the risk-taking channel for monetary policy transmission, optimal monetary policy, and financial stability.
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