医疗治疗能否促进就业？来自乳腺癌患者的证据

中文摘要

本文考察放射治疗对乳腺癌患者死亡率与经济结果的影响。我们利用丹麦医疗指南变化所产生的治疗差异，在双重差分框架内实施两阶段最小二乘（2SLS）策略。我们复现了一项随机对照试验（RCT）的结果，证实放射治疗具有挽救生命的益处。我们还表明，放射治疗同样具有经济回报：确诊十年后，治疗使就业增加37%，收入增加45%。既有研究发现，乳腺癌确诊后就业会大幅下降。我们的结果表明，放射治疗可将这一影响降低70%。（JEL H51、I12、I18、J16、J22、J31）

Abstract

We investigate the effects of radiation therapy on the mortality and economic outcomes of breast cancer patients. We implement a 2SLS strategy within a difference-in-difference framework exploiting variation in treatment stemming from a medical guideline change in Denmark. We reproduce the results from an RCT showing the lifesaving benefits of radiotherapy. We show radiation therapy also has economic returns: Ten years after diagnosis, treatment increases employment by 37 percent and earnings by 45 percent. Previous work has documented a substantial employment drop after a breast cancer diagnosis. Our results imply that radiation therapy can reduce this effect by 70 percent. (JEL H51, I12, I18, J16, J22, J31)