绝命毒师：健康冲击如何诱发犯罪

American Economic Journal: Applied Economics · 2025 · [{"name": "Steffen Andersen", "affiliation": ["Copenhagen Business School"]}, {"name": "Elin Colmsjö", "affiliation": ["University of Copenhagen"]}, {"name": "Gianpaolo Parise", "affiliation": ["Tilburg University"]}, {"name": "Kim Peijnenburg", "affiliation": ["Tilburg University"]}]

中文摘要

利用癌症诊断时间中可视为外生的变异, 我们证实健康冲击会引发犯罪概率大幅且持续的上升。这一效应体现为初次犯罪与再犯均大幅增加。我们发现了支持两种机制的证据: 第一, 经济动机促使个体以非法收入弥补合法收入的损失; 第二, 癌症患者因生存概率较低而面临更低的预期惩罚成本。缓解健康冲击经济后果的福利项目, 能有效减轻由此对社会造成的负外部性。(JEL D91, G22, G51, I12, I13, K42)

Abstract

Exploiting plausibly exogenous variations in the timing of cancer diagnoses, we establish that health shocks elicit a large and persistent increase in the probability of committing a crime. This effect materializes in a substantial rise in both first crimes and re-offenses. We uncover evidence for two mechanisms. First, an economic motive leads individuals to compensate the loss of legal revenues with illegal earnings. Second, cancer patients face lower expected cost of punishment through a lower survival probability. Welfare programs that alleviate the economic repercussions of health shocks are effective at mitigating the ensuing negative externality on society. (JEL D91, G22, G51, I12, I13, K42)