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错配周期

Mismatch Cycles
Journal of Political Economy · 2022 · Isaac Baley、Ana Figueiredo、Robert Ulbricht

中文摘要

本文研究了技能错配的周期性动态,并量化了其对劳动生产率的影响。我们构建了一个易于处理的定向搜索模型,其中工人在多个维度上技能各异,并分选进入技能要求异质的工作岗位。技能错配因信息摩擦而产生,并因搜寻摩擦而持续存在。将该模型估计至美国数据后,模型复现了错配在商业周期中的若干显著特征。进出底层工作层级的工作转换,结合职业流动性,是解释该实证拟合的关键。该模型为失业的疤痕效应提供了一种新的叙事。

Abstract

This paper studies the cyclical dynamics of skill mismatch and quantifies its impact on labor productivity. We build a tractable directed search model, in which workers differ in skills along multiple dimensions and sort into jobs with heterogeneous skill requirements. Skill mismatch arises because of information frictions and is prolonged by search frictions. Estimated to the United States, the model replicates salient business cycle properties of mismatch. Job transitions in and out of bottom job rungs, combined with career mobility, are key to account for the empirical fit. The model provides a novel narrative for the scarring effect of unemployment.
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