Review of Economic Studies · 2026 · Cynthia L. Doniger
中文摘要
配置性工资——即在决定建立或解除长期雇佣关系时所考虑的劳动力成本——对受过更多教育的劳动者而言对周期性状况更为敏感。具体而言，受过大学教育的劳动者的配置性工资具有高度顺周期性，而高中辍学者的工资仅表现出温和的周期性。此外，随着受教育程度的提高，配置性工资敏感性中越来越大的一部分是由雇佣时周期性状况对与较高任期相关的工资所产生的持久性创伤效应所驱动的，对于受过大学教育的劳动者而言，这部分占到总体敏感性的三分之一以上。受教育程度更高的劳动者具有更大的工作稳定性——从而更易暴露于创伤效应——这促成了上述差异。此外，在每一任期水平上更显著的创伤效应放大了这一影响。为了记录这些事实，我开发了新的方法，用于在行为人具有前瞻性且工资可能被跨期平滑的情况下推断劳动力成本对冲击的敏感性。
Abstract
Abstract Allocative wages—the labour costs considered when deciding to form or dissolve a long-term employment relationship—are more sensitive to cyclical conditions for more educated workers. Specifically, college-educated workers’ allocative wages are highly pro-cyclical, while high school dropouts’ wages exhibit only moderate cyclicality. Further, as education increases, an increasing share of the sensitivity of allocative wages is driven by the persistent scarring effects of the cyclical position at the time of hiring on the wages associated with higher levels of tenure, amounting to more than a third of the overall sensitivity for the college educated. The greater job stability of the more educated—and therefore the exposure to scarring—contributes to these differences. In addition, more significant scarring at each horizon of tenure amplifies the effect. In service of documenting these facts, I develop new methods for inferring the sensitivity of labour costs to shocks when agents are forward-looking and wages may be intertemporally smoothed.