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通胀风险与金融-增长关联

Inflation Risk and the Finance-Growth Nexus
Review of Economic Studies · 2026 · Alexandre Corhay、Jincheng Tong

中文摘要

当企业使用金融中介发行的长期名义债务进行融资时,预期通胀的变化会导致跨部门的财富转移。较高的预期通胀降低了企业的实际负债和违约风险,这有助于减轻债务悬置。然而,它损害了中介的实际资产,导致信贷供给收缩。我们在理论上证明,中介的融资条件在名义冲击的传导中发挥关键作用,影响投资者为承担通胀风险而要求的风险溢价。我们提供了支持我们这一新颖的通胀传导机制的实证证据,并将我们的发现与2023年的银行业压力联系起来。我们还表明,同时对金融变量和实际变量作出反应的泰勒规则有助于稳定经济。

Abstract

Abstract When firms finance using long-term nominal debt issued by financial intermediaries, changes in expected inflation lead to a wealth transfer across sectors. Higher expected inflation decreases firms’ real liabilities and default risk, which helps reduce debt overhang. However, it hurts intermediaries’ real assets, leading to a contraction in credit supply. We theoretically demonstrate that intermediary financing conditions play a key role in the transmission of nominal shocks, influencing the premium investors require for bearing inflation risk. We provide empirical evidence supporting our novel inflation transmission mechanism and connect our findings to the banking stress of 2023. We also show that Taylor rules responding to both financial and real variables can help stabilise our economy.
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