中文摘要
我们在一个包含受杠杆约束的银行和异质性家庭的小型开放经济模型中，研究货币贬值的总体效应与再分配效应。我们的框架刻画了新兴经济体金融美元化的三个典型事实：(1) 国内存款中有相当大比例以外币计价；(2) 这些存款构成当地银行规模可观的外币负债；(3) 美元存款主要由较富裕家庭持有。货币贬值增加了外币债务的实际负担，导致银行净值受到侵蚀，进而抑制信贷供给和经济活动。较富裕家庭通过其美元存款获得了部分保护，而较贫穷家庭则因借贷成本上升和实际劳动收入下降而大幅削减消费。在我们的模型中，存款美元化放大了货币贬值对产出、投资和消费的收缩效应，这与针对新兴经济体的新实证证据一致。要得到这一结果，受约束的金融中介机构和异质性家庭均至关重要。在我们的框架中，对美元化进行监管可以带来广泛的福利收益，尤其是对较贫穷家庭而言。
Abstract
Abstract We study the aggregate and redistributive effects of currency devaluations in a small open economy model with leverage-constrained banks and heterogeneous households. Our framework captures three stylized facts about financial dollarization in emerging economies: (1) a sizable share of domestic deposits is denominated in foreign currency; (2) these deposits represent significant foreign currency liabilities for local banks; and (3) dollar deposits are mainly held by wealthier households. A devaluation increases the real burden of foreign currency debt, causing an erosion of banks’ net worth, which depresses credit supply and economic activity. While richer households are partially insulated through their dollar deposits, poorer households cut consumption sharply in response to rising borrowing costs and falling real labor income. In our model deposit, dollarization amplifies the contractionary effects of a devaluation on output, investment, and consumption, in line with new empirical evidence for emerging economies. To achieve this result, both constrained intermediaries and heterogeneous households are crucial. In our framework, regulating dollarization can result in widespread welfare gains, especially for poorer households.