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企业质量动态与信贷干预的滑坡效应

Firm Quality Dynamics and the Slippery Slope of Credit Intervention
Review of Economic Studies · 2025 · Wenhao Li、Ye Li

中文摘要

近几十年来,危机干预中出现了一个显著趋势:政府和中央银行绕过银行及其他信贷中介机构,直接向非金融企业提供资金。我们聚焦企业质量动态,分析此类政策的长期后果。在自由放任经济中,高生产率企业比低生产率企业更有可能在危机中存活。政府资金支持挽救了更多企业,但无法根据企业生产率进行针对性调整,从而削弱了危机的净化效应。这种政策扭曲具有自我延续性:企业质量分布向低质量方向偏移,使得未来危机中需要更大规模的干预。我们提出的机制在定量上具有重要意义:我们表明,如果政策制定者忽视此类政策对企业质量动态的扭曲效应,由此产生的信贷干预规模将接近最优规模的两倍。

Abstract

Abstract A salient trend in crisis intervention has emerged in recent decades: government and central banks have offered funding directly to nonfinancial firms, bypassing banks and other credit intermediaries. We analyse the long-term consequences of such policies by focussing on firm quality dynamics. In a laissez-faire economy, firms with high productivity are more likely to survive crises than those with low productivity. The government funding support saves more firms but cannot be customized based on firm productivity, dampening the cleansing effect of crises. The policy distortion is self-perpetuating: a downward bias in the firm quality distribution necessitates larger interventions in future crises. Our mechanism is quantitatively important: we show that if policymakers ignore such distortionary effects on firm quality dynamics, the resultant credit intervention would almost double the optimal amount.
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