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餐桌上的政治:感恩节与社会影响对政治极化的作用

Politics at the Dinner Table: Thanksgiving and Social Influences on Political Polarisation
The Economic Journal · 2026 · Kirsten Cornelson

中文摘要

与持不同意见的人交往,能否改变你的观点并减少政治极化?我利用感恩节这一冲击来回答这个问题:它促使我们与意识形态更多元的人群交往并讨论政治。基于美国和加拿大调查受访者的样本,我发现,人们在感恩节后一周内向家人的观点靠拢,由此带来的观点极化下降在统计上显著。家人立场十分偏左的人,其观点在感恩节当周向左移动约一个标准差的11%;家人立场十分偏右的人,其观点则向相反方向移动,幅度略大。感恩节刚过,持中间派观点的概率上升了3.9%。对情感极化的效应在统计上不显著。在这一情境下,这些效应持续时间较短,但为现实生活中的互动如何缓解“回音室效应”提供了新的准实验证据。

Abstract

Abstract Can socialising with people who disagree with you change your opinions and reduce political polarisation? I answer this question using a shock that induces us to socialise and discuss politics with a more ideologically diverse set of people: Thanksgiving. Using a sample of American and Canadian survey respondents, I show that people converge towards their families’ viewpoints in the week after Thanksgiving, and that this significantly reduces opinion polarisation. People with very left-wing family move about 11% of a standard deviation to the left in the week of Thanksgiving, with a slightly larger response in the opposite direction for people with very right-wing family. The probability of having a centrist opinion rises by 3.9% just after Thanksgiving. There are no significant effects on affective polarisation. The effects are short-lived in this setting, but provide novel quasi-experimental evidence on how real-life interactions can alleviate ‘echo chamber effects’.
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