反洗钱监管的意外后果
Unintended Consequences of Anti-Money-Laundering Regulations
The Economic Journal · 2025 · [{"name": "Fabrizio Colella", "affiliation": ["Università della Svizzera italiana"]}, {"name": "Keith E. Maskus", "affiliation": ["University of Colorado Boulder", "University of Colorado System"]}, {"name": "Alessandro Peri", "affiliation": ["University of Colorado Boulder", "University of Colorado System"]}]
中文摘要
离岸金融避风港更严格的反洗钱监管, 可能无意中激发在国内洗钱的动机。本研究利用针对加勒比司法管辖区金融型洗钱的监管, 考察其对美国各县空壳公司设立及其他洗钱行为的影响。对其效应的预测并不明确: 更严格的监管既可能通过替代效应增加国内洗钱, 也可能通过破坏洗钱网络而减少国内洗钱。我们发现了替代效应的有力证据。此前对这些司法管辖区存在金融敞口的县, 在监管收紧后商业活动有所上升。该效应在洗钱高风险行业中更大, 同时企业雇用的工人更少并虚增收入。有金融敞口的县还出现更高比例的现金交易和估值失真的房地产交易。我们的研究首次为外国反洗钱监管的实体与金融非预期效应提供了间接证据。
Abstract
Abstract Tighter money-laundering regulations in offshore financial havens may inadvertently spur incentives to launder money domestically. Our study exploits regulations targeting financially based money laundering in Caribbean jurisdictions to examine their impact on the creation of front companies and other money-laundering practices in US counties. Predictions on the effects are ambiguous: stricter regulations could either increase domestic money laundering through substitution or decrease it by disrupting laundering networks. We find strong evidence of substitution. Counties with prior financial exposure to these jurisdictions experience a rise in business activities after regulatory tightening. The effect is greater in sectors at high risk of money laundering, while firms hire fewer workers and inflate revenues. Exposed counties also see higher shares of cash-based and misvalued real-estate transactions. Our work provides the first indirect evidence of real and financial unintended effects of foreign money-laundering regulations.