中文摘要
由于缺乏失业保险（UI）方面的选择，估计失业保险价值的传统方法是在对风险偏好作出某种假设的条件下，根据观察到的消费对失业的反应来推断其价值。利用瑞典丰富的数据和独特的政策背景，我们提出了两种放松这一假设的替代方法，并在同一劳动者样本上应用了全部三种方法。第一种方法考察失业与就业状态下边际消费倾向（MPC）的差异，从而识别这两种状态下平滑消费的价格差异。第二种方法采用显示偏好（RP）方法，利用瑞典失业保险制度中包含的失业保险选择进行分析。尽管消费支出的降幅相对较小（约13%），我们发现，失业时的边际消费倾向比就业时高约25%，这意味着失业时转移支付的边际价值比就业时至少高60%。我们的显示偏好估计证实了失业保险的这一较高价值；考虑到消费支出的降幅相对较小，这一较高价值表明存在较强的风险厌恶。
Abstract
Abstract Due to the absence of unemployment insurance (UI) choices, the traditional approach to estimating the value of UI is to infer it from the observed consumption response to job loss under some assumption on risk preferences. Exploiting the rich data and unique policy context in Sweden, we propose two alternative approaches that relax this assumption and we implement all three methods on the same sample of workers. The first approach considers the difference in marginal propensity to consume (MPC) when unemployed versus employed, which allows to identify the difference in prices to smooth consumption in the respective states. The second approach exploits UI choices embedded in the Swedish UI system in a Revealed Preference approach. While the drop in consumption expenditures is relatively small ($\sim$13%), we find that the MPC is around 25% higher when unemployed than employed, translating into a marginal value of transfers that is at least $60$% higher when unemployed than employed. This high value of UI is confirmed by our RP estimates and indicates substantial risk aversion given the relatively small drop in consumption expenditures.