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说服的持续极化效应:来自土耳其的实验证据

Persistent Polarizing Effects of Persuasion: Experimental Evidence from Turkey
American Economic Review · 2022 · Ceren Baysan

中文摘要

在土耳其就削弱对行政部门的制衡举行全民公投之前,我评估了在社区层面随机改变信息宣传活动接触程度的效果。这些宣传活动涉及行政部门的施政表现或行政权力的扩大。这些活动加剧了选民围绕公投的极化,随后又改变了选民在接下来两年全国和地方选举中的政党归属,导致党派极化。我的研究结果表明,当选民对扩大行政权力是否是一项好政策存在分歧时,更多信息可能加剧选民极化。最后,我得出结论:由于潜在的极化往往被忽视,信息宣传活动对公民社会的影响被低估了。

Abstract

I evaluate randomly varied neighborhood exposure to information campaigns regarding either executive performance, or increases in executive power, prior to a Turkish referendum on weakening checks and balances on the executive. The campaigns increased voter polarization over the referendum, and subsequently changed party affiliation in national and local elections over the next two years, leading to partisan polarization. My results suggest that, when voters disagree on whether increasing executive power is a good policy, more information can increase voter polarization. Finally, I conclude that because potential polarization is often ignored, the impact of information campaigns on civil society is underestimated. (JEL D72, D83, O17)
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