Quarterly Journal of Economics · 2018 · David A. Keiser、Joseph Shapiro
中文摘要
自1972年美国《清洁水法》实施以来,政府与产业界已投入超过1万亿美元用于治理水污染,相当于每人每年100美元。然而,按溪流和河流的总里程计算,美国仍有超过一半的河段不符合污染标准。我们利用迄今编制的关于水污染及其决定因素的最全面数据集,包括来自24万个监测点的5000万条污染读数,以及涵盖全美河流的网络模型,研究水污染的趋势、成因与福利后果。我们有三项主要发现。第一,水污染物浓度已大幅下降。例如,1972年至2001年间,适宜垂钓的水域比例上升了12个百分点。第二,《清洁水法》向市政污水处理厂提供的拨款总计6500亿美元,促成了上述污染物浓度的部分下降。通过这些拨款,使一英里长的河段在一年内适宜垂钓,成本约为150万美元(按2014年美元计价)。我们发现,联邦拨款对市政支出的挤出效应很小。第三,据估计,拨款对住房价值的影响小于拨款成本;我们仔细讨论了其福利含义。
Abstract
Since the 1972 U.S. Clean Water Act, government and industry have invested over |${\$}$|1 trillion to abate water pollution, or |${\$}$|100 per person-year. Over half of U.S. stream and river miles, however, still violate pollution standards. We use the most comprehensive set of files ever compiled on water pollution and its determinants, including 50 million pollution readings from 240,000 monitoring sites and a network model of all U.S. rivers, to study water pollution’s trends, causes, and welfare consequences. We have three main findings. First, water pollution concentrations have fallen substantially. Between 1972 and 2001, for example, the share of waters safe for fishing grew by 12 percentage points. Second, the Clean Water Act’s grants to municipal wastewater treatment plants, which account for |${\$}$|650 billion in expenditure, caused some of these declines. Through these grants, it cost around |${\$}$|1.5 million (2014 dollars) to make one river-mile fishable for a year. We find little displacement of municipal expenditure due to a federal grant. Third, the grants’ estimated effects on housing values are smaller than the grants’ costs; we carefully discuss welfare implications.