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战争期间的平民疏散:来自乌克兰的证据

Civilian Evacuation During War: Evidence from Ukraine
The Economic Journal · 2026 · Seung-Keun Martinez、Monika Pompeo、Roman M. Sheremeta、Volodymyr Vakhitov、Matthias Weber、Nataliia Zaika

中文摘要

在战争时期,将平民从冲突地区疏散对其生存与福祉至关重要。然而,许多人对是否撤离犹豫不决。尽管基于文本的助推已在其他情境中得到研究,但其在武装冲突期间鼓励疏散的有效性仍缺乏充分探讨。我们于2022年7月——当时俄罗斯的全面入侵仍在持续——在乌克兰开展了一项对照调查实验,改变了自动警报信息的表述框架与信息内容。我们的研究结果提示,在信息中为个人提供疏散计划至关重要,而信息本身的具体表述框架对信息的感知有效性并无显著作用。

Abstract

Abstract In times of war, evacuating civilians from conflict zones is of critical importance to their survival and well-being. However, many people are hesitant to evacuate. While text-based nudges have been studied in other contexts, their effectiveness in encouraging evacuation during armed conflict remains under-explored. We conducted a controlled survey experiment in Ukraine in July 2022—during the ongoing full-scale Russian invasion—by varying the framing and informational content of automated alert messages. Our findings suggest that providing individuals with an evacuation plan in the message is crucial, while the specific framing of the message itself does not play a significant role in the perceived effectiveness of the messages.
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