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从工装靴到军靴:大规模裁员与参军入伍

Work Boots to Combat Boots: Mass Layoffs and Military Enlistment
Journal of Labor Economics · 2024 · Francis Murphy、Sarah Turner

中文摘要

当地劳动力市场状况疲软,可能改变原本预期能找到工作的年轻人的人生轨迹。已有充分记录的应对方式包括增加教育投资、迁往劳动力市场更繁荣的地区,或降低劳动力市场依附程度。参军入伍是一个受到较少研究的潜在调整渠道。利用陆军新兵数据,我们证明了参军入伍对大规模裁员存在显著的本地响应,其特征表现为面向军队的劳动力供给增加,而非当地军事招募活动的加强。本文的研究表明,军事就业是应对地方劳动力市场冲击的一项重要调整途径。

Abstract

Weak local labor market conditions may change the trajectories of young adults who expected to find work. Well-documented responses include increasing educational investments, moving to more prosperous labor markets, or reducing labor force attachment. Military enlistment is a channel of potential adjustment that has received less study. Using data on Army recruits, we demonstrate a significant local response in enlistment to mass layoffs, characterized by increased labor supply to the military rather than increased local military recruiting. Our work documents the significance of military employment as an important arm of adjustment to local labor market shocks.
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