从工装靴到作战靴:大规模裁员与参军
Work Boots to Combat Boots: Mass Layoffs and Military Enlistment
Journal of Labor Economics · 2024 · [{"name": "Francis Murphy", "affiliation": ["United States Department of the Air Force", "United States Air Force Academy"]}, {"name": "Sarah Turner", "affiliation": ["National Bureau of Economic Research"]}]
中文摘要
疲弱的地方劳动力市场状况可能改变原本预期能找到工作的年轻成年人的人生轨迹。已有充分文献记录的应对方式包括增加教育投资、迁往更繁荣的劳动力市场, 或降低对劳动力市场的依附。参军入伍是一个受到较少研究的潜在调整渠道。利用陆军新兵数据, 我们发现入伍对大规模裁员存在显著的地方响应, 其特征是流向军队的劳动供给增加, 而非地方征兵力度的加大。我们的研究记录了军事就业作为应对地方劳动力市场冲击的重要调整渠道的重要意义。
Abstract
Weak local labor market conditions may change the trajectories of young adults who expected to find work. Well-documented responses include increasing educational investments, moving to more prosperous labor markets, or reducing labor force attachment. Military enlistment is a channel of potential adjustment that has received less study. Using data on Army recruits, we demonstrate a significant local response in enlistment to mass layoffs, characterized by increased labor supply to the military rather than increased local military recruiting. Our work documents the significance of military employment as an important arm of adjustment to local labor market shocks.