农业技术变革、女性劳动收入与生育率：来自巴西的证据

中文摘要

本文研究发展中国家背景下农业技术变革如何影响劳动力市场机会和生育率。利用巴西各市镇在转基因大豆采用方面可合理视为外生的差异，本文发现，这种节约劳动力的技术降低了女性农业劳动收入和就业，且未引发任何女性劳动力的跨部门再配置。此外，该技术的采用通过家庭总收入的增加以及对女性劳动力的需求下降所驱动的替代效应，提高了生育率。这些结果表明，除非替代效应为负且足够大，否则发展中国家的技术进步可能不会改善女性的经济机会或降低生育率。

Abstract

Abstract I study how agricultural technological change affects labour market opportunities and fertility in a developing country context. Exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in the adoption of genetically engineered soy across municipalities in Brazil, I show that this labour-saving technology reduced female agricultural earnings and employment without inducing any female sectoral reallocation. Furthermore, this technology adoption increased fertility due to increases in overall household earnings and substitution effects driven by the reduction in female labour demand. These results suggest that technological progress in developing countries may not improve female economic opportunities or lower fertility unless substitution effects are negative and sufficiently large.