中文摘要
在20世纪的大部分时间里，经济增长与中位数实际工资的上升相关。然而，自20世纪80年代初以来，尽管生产率增长强劲，测得的中位数实际小时薪酬却一直停滞不前。就已经出现的测得的实际工资增长而言，这种增长不成比例地集中在工资分布的高端。许多人将这一时期中位数工资缺乏增长视为美国中产阶级未取得进步的证据，以及社会流动性下降的征兆。测得的中位数实际工资增长与生产率增长之间的脱钩，被学术界和政策制定者视为一个谜题。在这一时期，工资增长与其他宏观经济基本面之间也出现了分离。例如，在全球大流行前的几年里，美国的失业率处于创纪录的低水平，但在大流行前这一时期，伴随而来的工资增长却很少。这似乎与长期以来的菲利普斯曲线分析相矛盾，该分析认为失业率与工资增长呈负相关。研究者近来已开始深入探究这一谜题（例如，参见Del Negro等，2020）。近期提出的解释包括这样一些可能性：我们对经济中闲置程度的测量有误（Krueger、Cramer和Cho，2014；Abraham、Haltiwanger和Rendell，2020），或者我们面对的是一条更平坦的……
Abstract
true Throughout most of the twentieth century, economic growth was associated with rising median real wages. However, since the early 1980s, measured median real hourly compensation has been stagnant despite robust productivity growth. To the extent that measured real wage growth has occurred, it has been concentrated disproportionately at the upper end of the wage distribution. Many view the lack of growth of median wages over this time period as evidence that the American middle class has not advanced and as a symptom of declining social mobility. The decoupling of measured median real wage growth and productivity growth has been viewed as a puzzle among both academics and policy makers. During this time period, there has also been a separation of wage growth and othermacroeconomic fundamentals. For instance, theUnited States has had record low levels of unemployment in the years prior to the global pandemic, yet during the prepandemic period there was little accompanying wage growth. This presents an apparent contradiction of the long-standing Phillips curve analysis that negatively relates unemployment towage growth. Researchers have begun to dig into this puzzle of late (see, e.g., Del Negro et al. 2020). Recent explanations involve the possibility that we have mismeasured the amount of slack in the economy (Krueger, Cramer, and Cho 2014; Abraham, Haltiwanger, and Rendell 2020) or that we have a flatter