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一项善意政策的意外后果

Unintended Consequences of a Well-Intentioned Policy
Journal of Human Resources · 2023 · Md Amzad Hossain

中文摘要

标准信贷模型表明,放松信贷约束可以增加对儿童的人力资本投资。然而,在存在诸多劳动力市场摩擦的经济体中,当信贷使新的商业机会变得可及时,信贷可得性的提高可能通过提高儿童时间的机会成本而增加童工的使用。在本研究中,我利用一项随机对照试验的数据,考察孟加拉国一项农业信贷扩张项目的影响,发现童工使用有所增加。我提供的证据表明,童工使用的增加源于儿童参与家庭自营就业活动的新工作机会增多。我还发现,从事工作的成年人较少的处理组家庭使用更多童工,且教育支出更少。尽管我未发现该项目对受教育结果有任何影响,但时间预算调查显示,处理地区儿童用于学习的时间在统计上显著更少。总体而言,这些发现引发了人们对通过放松信贷约束来增加自营就业可能带来的非预期代际后果的担忧。

Abstract

Abstract Canonical models of credit suggest that relaxing credit constraints can increase human capital investment in children. However, when credit brings new business opportunities within reach in economies with many labor market frictions, increased access to credit might increase the use of child labor by increasing the opportunity cost of a child’s time. In this study, I use data from a randomized controlled experiment to examine the effect of an agricultural credit expansion program in Bangladesh and find an increase in child labor. I present evidence that this increase in child labor is due to a rise in new opportunities for children to work in household self-employment activities. I also find that treated households with fewer working adults use more child labor and spend less on education. While I do not see any effect on schooling outcomes, the time budget survey reveals that children from treated areas spend significantly less time studying. Overall, these findings raise concerns about the unintended inter-generational consequences of easing credit constraints to increase self-employment.
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