AER: Insights · 2022 · Gordon B. Dahl、Runjing Lu、William Mullins
中文摘要
政治领导层的更替会使公共政策和不同党派对未来的看法发生剧烈变化。我们利用特朗普在2016年大选中意外当选这一事件，识别政治权力转移对最重要的家庭决策之一——是否生育子女——的影响。相较于倾向民主党的县，倾向共和党的县的生育率出现急剧且持续的上升，这一变动幅度相当于全国生育率的1.2%至2.2%。此外，西班牙裔的生育率相对于非西班牙裔有所下降，尤其是在与农村白人或福音派白人相比时。（JEL D72, J13）
Abstract
Changes in political leadership drive sharp changes in public policy and partisan beliefs about the future. We exploit the surprise 2016 election of Trump to identify the effects of a shift in political power on one of the most consequential household decisions: whether to have a child. Republican-leaning counties experience a sharp and persistent increase in fertility relative to Democratic counties, a shift amounting to 1.2–2.2 percent of the national fertility rate. In addition, Hispanics see fertility fall relative to non-Hispanics, especially compared to rural or evangelical Whites. (JEL D72, J13)