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住房市场中的参照依赖

Reference Dependence in the Housing Market
American Economic Review · 2022 · Steffen Andersen、Cristian Badarinza、Lu Liu、Julie Marx、Tarun Ramadorai

中文摘要

我们利用丰富的丹麦行政数据量化了住房市场中的参照依赖与损失厌恶。我们的结构模型包含损失厌恶、参照依赖、财务约束和出售决策,并匹配了关键的非参数矩,包括名义收益下挂牌价格的“曲棍球杆”形态,以及在已实现名义收益为零处的集聚。家庭从超过房屋初始购买价格的收益中获得大量效用;损失对家庭的影响大约是收益的2.5倍。该模型有助于解释总体房价与换手率之间的正相关关系,但无法解释当家庭面临更强的财务约束时参照依赖出现的明显减弱。

Abstract

We quantify reference dependence and loss aversion in the housing market using rich Danish administrative data. Our structural model includes loss aversion, reference dependence, financial constraints, and a sale decision, and matches key nonparametric moments, including a “hockey stick” in listing prices with nominal gains, and bunching at zero realized nominal gains. Households derive substantial utility from gains over the original house purchase price; losses affect households roughly 2.5 times more than gains. The model helps explain the positive correlation between aggregate house prices and turnover, but cannot explain visible attenuation in reference dependence when households are more financially constrained. (JEL D12, D91, G51, R21, R31)
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