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煽动者与民主制度的经济脆弱性

Demagogues and the Economic Fragility of Democracies
American Economic Review · 2022 · Dan Bernhardt、Stefan Krasa、Mehdi Shadmehr

中文摘要

我们考察民主制度易受煽动者影响的程度,研究保护选民长期利益的代表与迎合选民短期欲望的煽动者之间的紧张关系。政党提出消费与投资方案。选民根据当期消费和效价冲击做出选择。较年轻或较贫穷的经济体以及经济上处于不利地位的选民受到煽动者削减投资政策的吸引,迫使有远见的代表模仿这些政策。这种选举竞争可能摧毁民主制度:如果资本降至某一临界水平以下,就会陷入死亡螺旋,资本存量此后持续下降。我们识别出经济发展在何种条件下能够缓解这一风险,并刻画了随着资本规模变得很大,死亡螺旋风险如何下降。

Abstract

We investigate the susceptibility of democracies to demagogues, studying tensions between representatives who guard voters’ long-run interests and demagogues who cater to voters’ short-run desires. Parties propose consumption and investment. Voters base choices on current-period consumption and valence shocks. Younger/poorer economies and economically disadvantaged voters are attracted to the demagogue’s disinvestment policies, forcing farsighted representatives to mimic them. This electoral competition can destroy democracy: if capital falls below a critical level, a death spiral ensues with capital stocks falling thereafter. We identify when economic development mitigates this risk and characterize how the death-spiral risk declines as capital grows large. (JEL D72, E21, E22, E32)
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