墨西哥的职业与温度相关死亡率

Journal of Human Resources · 2026 · [{"name": "R. Daniel Bressler", "affiliation": ["Bentley University", "Center For Policy Research"]}, {"name": "Anna Papp", "affiliation": ["Center For Policy Research", "Massachusetts Institute of Technology"]}, {"name": "Luis Sarmiento", "affiliation": ["Bank of Mexico", "ETH Zurich", "RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment", "CMCC Foundation - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change"]}, {"name": "Jeffrey Shrader", "affiliation": ["Center For Policy Research", "Columbia University"]}, {"name": "Andrew J. Wilson", "affiliation": ["Center For Policy Research", "Global Policy Institute", "University of Virginia", "Stanford University"]}]

中文摘要

我们考察职业如何影响墨西哥与温度相关的死亡率。利用数十年的全国性死亡与气象数据，我们发现与温度相关的死亡风险因职业而存在显著差异。从事气候暴露型工作的青年人面临显著更高的高温风险：一名 15—24 岁的农业工人死于高温的可能性，是同年龄组中从事专业/管理职业者的 10 倍以上。低温同样会提高死亡率，尤其是对年长的非就业者而言。我们的结果表明，职业安全与适应政策或可保护脆弱工人免于死亡，而正在发生的、经济结构逐步脱离暴露型部门的转变，可能会缓和未来与高温相关的死亡率。

Abstract

<h3>Abstract</h3> We investigate how occupation influences temperature-related mortality in Mexico. Using decades of nationwide death and weather data, we find that temperature-related mortality risk varies sharply by occupation. Young adults in climate-exposed jobs experience significantly higher heat risk: a 15-24-year-old agricultural worker is over 10 × more likely to die from heat than an age-group peer in professional/managerial employment. Cold temperatures also increase mortality, especially for older non-workers. Our results suggest that occupational safety and adaptation policies may protect vulnerable workers from death and that ongoing economic shifts away from exposed sectors may moderate future heat-related mortality.