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职业与墨西哥温度相关死亡率

Occupation and Temperature-Related Mortality in Mexico
Journal of Human Resources · 2026 · R. Daniel Bressler、Anna Papp、Luis Sarmiento、Jeffrey Shrader、Andrew J. Wilson

中文摘要

我们考察职业如何影响墨西哥的温度相关死亡率。利用数十年的全国死亡与天气数据,我们发现温度相关死亡风险因职业不同而急剧变化。从事气候暴露型工作的年轻人面临显著更高的高温死亡风险:一名15—24岁的农业劳动者死于高温的可能性,是同年龄组专业/管理岗位从业者的10倍以上。低温同样会提高死亡率,对年长非就业者的影响尤为突出。我们的研究结果表明,职业安全与适应政策可能保护脆弱劳动者免于死亡,而经济活动持续从气候暴露型行业转移,可能缓和未来的高温相关死亡率。

Abstract

<h3>Abstract</h3> We investigate how occupation influences temperature-related mortality in Mexico. Using decades of nationwide death and weather data, we find that temperature-related mortality risk varies sharply by occupation. Young adults in climate-exposed jobs experience significantly higher heat risk: a 15-24-year-old agricultural worker is over 10 × more likely to die from heat than an age-group peer in professional/managerial employment. Cold temperatures also increase mortality, especially for older non-workers. Our results suggest that occupational safety and adaptation policies may protect vulnerable workers from death and that ongoing economic shifts away from exposed sectors may moderate future heat-related mortality.
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