中文摘要
使用新的交易数据，我发现针对来自阿拉斯加永久基金的数额巨大、定期、预先确定且显著的支付，消费平滑存在相当大的偏离。平均而言，在支付后的一个季度内，非耐用品和服务的边际消费倾向（MPC）为25%。MPC具有异质性，随收入单调递增，且该平均值很大程度上由拥有大量流动性资产的高收入家庭驱动，这些家庭的MPC超过50%。账户层面的数据以及支付规则的性质排除了以往大多数对过度敏感性的解释，包括缓冲存货模型和理性疏忽。这些“错误”有多大？使用充分统计量方法，我证明了过度敏感性带来的福利损失取决于MPC以及相对支付规模占收入的比例。由于一次性支付不依赖于收入，这两个统计量呈负相关，因此尽管MPC很大，各家庭间的福利损失却相似且较小（不到财富的0.1%）。
Abstract
Using new transaction data, I find considerable deviations from consumption smoothing in response to large, regular, predetermined, and salient payments from the Alaska Permanent Fund. On average, the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) is 25% for nondurables and services within one quarter of the payments. The MPC is heterogeneous, monotonically increasing with income, and the average is largely driven by high-income households with substantial amounts of liquid assets, who have MPCs above 50%. The account-level data and the properties of the payments rule out most previous explanations of excess sensitivity, including buffer stock models and rational inattention. How big are these “mistakes?” Using a sufficient statistics approach, I show that the welfare loss from excess sensitivity depends on the MPC and the relative payment size as a fraction of income. Since the lump-sum payments do not depend on income, the two statistics are negatively correlated such that the welfare losses are similar across households and small (less than 0.1% of wealth), despite the large MPCs.