非缴费型养老金对墨西哥农村老年人死亡率的影响

Journal of Human Resources · 2026 · Felipe Menares、William Dow、Susan W. Parker、Emma Aguila、Jorge Peniche、Soomin Ryu

中文摘要

我们研究了一项旨在缓解农村老年人贫困的无条件现金转移计划。利用死亡记录和三重差分设计，我们发现女性死亡率下降了5.5%，这主要源于非心血管相关死亡率的下降，而男性方面的证据尚无定论。我们利用收入与支出调查以及三重断点差分设计探究其作用机制。除了就业和工作时长的下降外，我们几乎未发现关键假设机制发生显著变化的证据。

Abstract

We study an unconditional cash transfer program aimed at alleviating rural poverty among older adults. Using death records and a triple difference design, we find a 5.5% reduction in mortality for women, mostly due to a decrease in non-cardiovascular related mortality, and inconclusive evidence for men. We explore mechanisms using income and expenditure surveys and a triple difference-in-discontinuities design. We find little evidence of significant changes in key hypothesized mechanisms, except for declines in employment and hours worked.