非缴费型养老金对墨西哥农村老年人死亡率的影响
Effects of Noncontributory Pensions on Older Adult Mortality in Rural Mexico
Journal of Human Resources · 2026 · [{"name": "Felipe Menares", "affiliation": ["Inter-American Development Bank"]}, {"name": "William Dow", "affiliation": ["Department of Health"]}, {"name": "Susan W. Parker", "affiliation": ["Public Policy Institute of California"]}, {"name": "Emma Aguila", "affiliation": ["University of Southern California"]}, {"name": "Jorge Peniche", "affiliation": ["University of Missouri Health System"]}, {"name": "Soomin Ryu", "affiliation": ["University of Southern California"]}]
中文摘要
我们研究一项旨在缓解农村老年人贫困的无条件现金转移项目。利用死亡记录和三重差分设计，我们发现女性死亡率下降 5.5%，主要源于非心血管相关死亡率的下降，而男性方面的证据尚无定论。我们进一步利用收入与支出调查以及三重断点差分设计探究其作用机制。除就业和工作时长出现下降外，我们几乎没有发现关键假设机制发生显著变化的证据。
Abstract
We study an unconditional cash transfer program aimed at alleviating rural poverty among older adults. Using death records and a triple difference design, we find a 5.5% reduction in mortality for women, mostly due to a decrease in non-cardiovascular related mortality, and inconclusive evidence for men. We explore mechanisms using income and expenditure surveys and a triple difference-in-discontinuities design. We find little evidence of significant changes in key hypothesized mechanisms, except for declines in employment and hours worked.