大宗商品收入冲击与死亡率

中文摘要

我们考察了1980年至2019年美国中西部地区农作物收入与死亡率之间的关系。在识别策略上，我们将暴露度设计与双向（即县和年份）固定效应估计量相结合。平均而言，大豆收入下降与死亡率上升相关：大豆收入下降10%，与年龄调整后的全因死亡率上升0.1%相关，按2024年计算，这相当于整个中西部地区约增加170例死亡。我们的研究结果主要由65岁及以上人群和女性所驱动，且其作用似乎由心血管疾病和心理健康相关问题所介导。

Abstract

<h3>Abstract</h3> We look at the relationship between crop revenues and mortality in the Midwest from 1980 to 2019. For identification, we combine an exposure design with a two-way (i.e., county and year) fixed effects estimator. On average, a decrease in soybean revenue is associated with an increase in mortality: A 10-percent decrease in soybean revenues is associated with a 0.1-percent increase in the age-adjusted all-cause death rate, or about 170 more deaths throughout the Midwest in 2024. Our findings are driven by individuals 65 and older, by women, and they appear mediated by cardiovascular disease and mental health-related issues.