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债务收入与公共债务的可持续性

Debt Revenue and the Sustainability of Public Debt
Journal of Economic Perspectives · 2022 · Ricardo Reis

中文摘要

尽管过去二十年公共债务有所增加,但其向投资者提供的回报却有所下降,尤其是相对于私人投资的回报而言。这为政府创造了一项收入,因为政府是公共债券所提供的特殊服务的供给方,这些服务包括价值储藏、安全性、流动性以及免受金融压抑。这项债务收入的现值相对于公共债务存量而言规模庞大,使公共债务即使在基本财政余额的现值为零或负值时仍能保持可持续性。与围绕基本财政余额展开的传统分析相比,债务收入带来了不同的政策权衡,并由此在财政紧缩的影响、最优债务规模或货币政策与财政政策之间的溢出效应等方面得出了不同的政策建议。

Abstract

While public debt has risen in the last two decades, the return that it offers to investors has fallen, especially relative to the return on private investment. This creates a revenue for the government as the supplier of the special services offered by public bonds, which include storage of value, safety, liquidity, and reprieve from repression. The present value of this debt revenue is large relative to the stock of public debt, keeping it sustainable even as the present value of primary balances is zero or negative. It gives rise to different policy tradeoffs than the conventional analysis of primary balances and makes different recommendation on the effects of austerity, the optimal amount of debt, or the spillovers between monetary and fiscal policy.
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