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疫情后的新兴市场主权债务

Emerging Market Sovereign Debt in the Aftermath of the Pandemic
Journal of Economic Perspectives · 2022 · Kenneth Rogoff

中文摘要

对新兴市场而言,财政空间是一个非常现实的约束,可能在多种情形下显现,包括全球利率上升、大宗商品价格下跌或全球经济衰退。一些新兴市场以及大多数低收入发展中经济体已经处于债务困境或违约状态。短期内,确保陷入困境的债务国了解全部可选方案,包括违约等非正统策略,十分重要。从更长期看,重新思考布雷顿森林体系金融机构,使其更加侧重无偿赠款而非贷款,比以往任何时候都更有道理。

Abstract

For emerging markets, fiscal space is a very real constraint that can surface under a variety of circumstances, including rising world interest rates, falling commodity prices, or a global recession. Some emerging markets, and the majority of low-income developing economies, are already in debt distress or default. Near-term, making sure that troubled debtor countries are aware of the full menu of options, including heterodox strategies such as default, is important. Longer-term, a rethink of the Bretton Woods financial institutions to incorporate a greater emphasis on outright grants instead of loans, makes more sense than ever.
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