Journal of Development Economics · 2026 · Daniel Rinner、Kevin P. Gallagher、Rebecca Ray
中文摘要
国际货币基金组织（IMF）的一项核心职责是为面临国际收支困难的国家提供流动性支持。贷款项目旨在弥补融资缺口，使经济重回增长与稳定的轨道。IMF的核心项目以受援国采取财政及其他政策措施作为提供此类支持的条件，期望改革和新增融资能够促进新的投资，尤其是私人投资，进入经济体。目前，已有丰富的学术文献评估IMF贷款项目的经济与社会结果。本研究考察IMF项目在多大程度上促进了总体固定资本形成总额（GFCF），并特别关注私人资本形成，从而补充了这一文献。对GFCF的分析有助于理解投资促进增长的渠道，以及IMF所催生资本的生产率。我们采用了一种新颖的实证策略——局部投影双重差分。结果表明，参与IMF项目对资本形成的影响通常不明确或为负。这些发现补充了此前关于IMF项目中增长与投资的研究。研究结果也支持了近期重新思考财政整顿在应对国际收支问题中价值的呼吁。
Abstract
A central mandate of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is to provide liquidity support to countries facing balance of payment difficulties. Lending programs aim to bridge financing gaps and restore trajectories for growth and stability. The IMF's core programs condition fiscal and other policy measures in return for such support, in hopes that reforms and new financing will catalyze new (especially private) investment into the economy. There is now a deep academic literature assessing the economic and social outcomes of IMF lending programs. This study adds to this literature by evaluating the extent to which IMF programs catalyze gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) in general and private capital formation in particular. An analysis of GFCF provides insight into investment channels of growth and the productivity of IMF-catalyzed capital. We leverage a novel empirical strategy, local projections difference-in-difference. Results indicate that IMF program participation typically has ambiguous or negative impacts on capital formation. These findings add to prior work on growth and investment within IMF programs. Results also support recent calls to rethink the value of fiscal consolidation for balance of payments problems.