灌溉是否会减少干旱后的迁移意愿？来自西非的证据

Journal of Development Economics · 2026 · [{"name": "Alix Debray", "affiliation": ["United Nations University Institute on Comparative Regional Integration Studies"]}, {"name": "Lucile Dehouck", "affiliation": ["Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne", "Paris School of Economics"]}, {"name": "Katrin Millock", "affiliation": ["Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique", "Paris School of Economics"]}, {"name": "Ilse Ruyssen", "affiliation": ["United Nations University Institute on Comparative Regional Integration Studies"]}]

中文摘要

本文考察灌溉是否缓解西非地区干旱之后的迁移意愿，以回应气候—迁移文献对原地适应关注不足的问题。我们将盖洛普世界民意调查的个体层面数据，与13个西非国家的地理参照干旱强度数据及基于卫星的灌溉覆盖率估计相结合。研究结果表明，干旱提高了农村家庭的迁移意愿，在干旱地区尤为明显。总体而言，灌溉并不能抵消这一效应；在控制冲突、汇款、援助以及采用替代性干旱和灌溉测度后，这一发现依然稳健。然而，在长期干旱条件下，灌溉覆盖率变得具有相关性，并对不同收入群体产生差异化影响：灌溉缓和了最富裕家庭由干旱驱动的迁移，但对其他群体没有显著影响。因此，作为对干旱的适应，灌溉很少替代迁移，而是揭示了应对气候压力的原地适应与基于流动的方式之间如何相互关联。

Abstract

This paper investigates whether irrigation mitigates migration intentions following drought in West Africa, addressing the limited focus on in situ adaptation within the climate – migration literature. We combine individual-level data from the Gallup World Poll with geo-referenced drought intensity and satellite-based estimates of irrigation coverage across 13 West African countries. Our findings show that drought increases migration intentions among rural households, especially in arid regions. Irrigation does not generally offset this effect, a finding robust to controls for conflict, remittances, aid, and alternative drought and irrigation measures. However, irrigation coverage becomes relevant under prolonged droughts and affects income groups differently: irrigation moderates drought-driven migration for the richest households but has no significant impact on other groups. Irrigation thus rarely substitutes for migration as an adaptation to drought, but instead reveals how in situ and mobility-based responses to climate stress are interlinked.