中文摘要
有关人口贩运的论述往往将移民描绘为受骗的受害者，而另一类观点则将人口贩运视为一种受约束的迁移策略。我们利用2021年和2023年两轮横截面原创调查数据参与这一争论，样本覆盖尼日利亚埃多州超过2700名受访者。相当一部分受访者表示，尽管知道存在被强迫劳动的风险，仍愿意通过人口贩运者迁移。列表实验提供了提示性证据，表明受访者可能低报了对通过人口贩运迁移的认可，且这一现象在女性中尤为明显，可能反映出与性工作相关的污名。我们运用愿望-能力框架考察对通过人口贩运迁移之认可的决定因素。迁移愿望强烈但能力有限的个体最愿意通过人口贩运者迁移。相比之下，接触反人口贩运宣传活动几乎没有影响。受访者总体上充分了解人口贩运可能带来的风险与回报，并未表现出动机性推理等认知偏误。总体而言，我们的研究结果表明，人口贩运的首要驱动因素并非无知，而是法律允许的迁移渠道有限和结构性障碍所塑造的一种受约束选择。• 在尼日利亚埃多州的一项代表性调查中，每4人中就有1人尽管知道存在被强迫劳动的风险，仍会考虑通过人口贩运实现迁移。• 列表实验揭示了具有性别差异的低报现象。• 高愿望与低能力可预测对人口贩运的认可。• 可能诉诸人口贩运的潜在移民对风险和收入抱有合理预期，没有证据显示其存在动机性推理或选择性回忆。• 宣传活动的影响有限；有必要开展结构性改革。
Abstract
The discourse on human trafficking often depicts migrants as deceived victims, while alternative accounts view trafficking as a constrained migration strategy. We contribute to this debate using original survey data from two cross-sectional waves (2021 and 2023) covering more than 2700 respondents in Edo State, Nigeria. A substantial share of respondents reports a willingness to migrate via traffickers despite awareness of the risks of forced labor. A list experiment provides suggestive evidence of underreporting of trafficking approval, particularly among women, likely reflecting stigma surrounding sex work. We examine the determinants of trafficking approval through an aspirations–capabilities framework. Willingness to migrate via traffickers is highest among individuals with strong migration aspirations but limited capabilities. In contrast, exposure to anti-trafficking campaigns has little effect. Respondents are generally well-informed about the potential risks and returns associated with trafficking and do not exhibit cognitive biases such as motivated reasoning. Overall, our findings suggest that trafficking is not primarily driven by ignorance, but instead reflects a constrained choice shaped by limited legal migration options and structural barriers. • 1 in 4 would consider trafficking for migration despite forced labor risks in a representative survey in Edo State, Nigeria. • List experiment reveals gendered underreporting. • High aspirations and low capabilities predict trafficking approval. • Prospective migrants who would resort to trafficking hold reasonable risk and income expectations, with no evidence of motivated reasoning or selective recall. • Awareness campaigns show limited impact; structural reform is needed.