排雷与经济发展：来自阿富汗多光谱卫星影像、夜间灯光与冲突事件的证据
Landmine clearance and economic development: Evidence from multispectral satellite imagery, nighttime lights, and conflict events in Afghanistan
Journal of Development Economics · 2026 · [{"name": "Ariel BenYishay", "affiliation": ["William & Mary"]}, {"name": "R.D. Sayers", "affiliation": ["William & Mary"]}, {"name": "Kunwar Singh", "affiliation": ["William & Mary"]}, {"name": "Christian Baehr", "affiliation": ["Princeton University"]}, {"name": "Madeleine Walker", "affiliation": ["University of California, Davis"]}]
中文摘要
许多国家未爆地雷的广泛存在, 每年造成数千人死伤。此外, 地雷可能阻断交通走廊——限制货物与人员的流动——并妨碍受污染土地的生产性利用。我们研究了过去几十年间阿富汗超过15,000个危险区域的清除工作, 并获取了这些区域的精确地理边界。我们利用多光谱 Landsat 系列影像构建土地利用与作物生产率的度量指标, 从而即使在农村地区也能识别其影响; 而在以往依赖夜间灯光作为经济活动代理变量的研究中, 这些地区的影响更难以观测。我们对清除的影响进行事件研究估计, 利用清除工作的交错推进 (staggered roll-out), 同时避免被禁止的比较。危险区域的清除引致土地利用与农业生产率的变化, 并带来夜间灯光所反映的更广泛的经济活动增长。我们还发现, 危险区域的清除降低了冲突风险。地雷清除行动似乎具有显著的经济效应, 即便在仍存在冲突风险的地区亦然。
Abstract
The widespread prevalence of unexploded landmines in many countries leads to thousands of deaths and injuries annually. In addition, landmines may block transport corridors – restricting the flow of goods and people – and prevent the productive use of contaminated land. We study the clearance of more than 15,000 hazardous areas in Afghanistan over the past several decades, obtaining precise geographic boundaries for these areas. We use multispectral Landsat-series imagery to develop measures of land use and crop productivity, allowing us to detect effects even in rural areas, where impacts have been more difficult to observe in prior papers relying on nighttime lights as proxies of economic activity. We conduct event study estimations of the impacts of clearance, leveraging the staggered roll-out of this clearance while avoiding forbidden comparisons. The clearance of hazardous areas leads to changes in land use and agricultural productivity, as well as broader increases in economic activity reflected in nighttime lights. We also find reductions in conflict risks due to the clearance of hazardous areas. Landmine action efforts appear to have substantial economic effects even in areas with ongoing conflict risks.