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贫困—心理健康梯度的形成:来自2005年巴基斯坦大地震的证据

The emergence of the poverty-mental health gradient: Evidence from the great Pakistan earthquake of 2005
Journal of Development Economics · 2026 · Tahir Andrabi、Benjamin Daniels、Jishnu Das

中文摘要

贫困—心理健康梯度在不同人群之间存在显著差异,远超单纯抽样变异所能预测的范围。我们将这种异质性视为实证研究的主要对象。利用2005年巴基斯坦大地震四年后从距活动断层线0—75公里范围内的126个村庄收集的数据,我们发现:在未受影响的人群中,消费贫困与心理健康之间不存在相关关系;相比之下,在最靠近断层的人群中,消费每增加一个对数单位,心理健康改善0.12个标准差,而在20公里以外,这一关系精确为零。这一梯度在采用不同距离阈值、样本划分方式和二元心理健康指标时依然稳健,且并非由家庭遭受的急性创伤所中介。这些结果表明,大规模逆境可以激活贫困—心理健康梯度,有助于解释更广泛文献中观察到的异质性。

Abstract

The poverty–mental health gradient varies substantially across populations, far more than sampling variation alone would predict. We treat this heterogeneity as a primary object of empirical interest. Using data collected four years after the 2005 Great Pakistan Earthquake from 126 villages spanning 0–75 km from the activated fault line, we show that in unaffected populations there is no correlation between consumption poverty and mental health. By contrast, among those nearest the fault, mental health improves by 0.12 standard deviations per log unit of consumption, while the relationship is a precise zero beyond 20 km. This gradient is robust to alternative distance thresholds, sample splits, and binary mental health measures, and is not mediated by acute household trauma. These results suggest that mass adversity can activate the poverty–mental health gradient, helping explain heterogeneity in the broader literature.
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