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风险评估得分对司法行为与被告结果的影响

The Effect of Risk Assessment Scores on Judicial Behavior and Defendant Outcomes
Journal of Human Resources · 2018 · CarlyWill Sloan、George Naufal、Heather Caspers

中文摘要

为减少对贫困、低风险被告的审前羁押,风险评估日益得到采用。我们利用得克萨斯州一个大县的行政数据,研究风险评估的影响。我们利用风险评估政策在一夜之间实施这一特点,通过断点回归识别其效应。结果表明,该政策使非金钱保释增加了6.5%,审前羁押减少了8.5%,但这两种效应均未持续超过两个月。此外,该政策并未增加审前暴力犯罪,但有一些提示性证据表明,审前非暴力犯罪有所增加。

Abstract

Risk assessment has been increasingly adopted in an effort to reduce pretrial detention for poor, low-risk defendants. We examine the impact of risk assessment using administrative data from a large Texas County. We identify effects using a regression discontinuity that exploits the overnight implementation of a risk assessment policy. Results indicate this led to a 6.5 percent increase in nonfinancial bond and an 8.5 percent decrease in pretrial detention, though neither effect persisted beyond two months. Additionally, the policy did not increase violent pretrial crime, though there is some suggestive evidence of increases in nonviolent pretrial crime.
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