中文摘要
本研究采用新的叙事性测度，衡量与美国战后税制改革相关的边际税率外生变动，并基于1946年至2012年的时间序列数据，估计得出申报收入的短期税收弹性约为1.2。收入分布中最高1%人群的弹性更大，但其他收入群体的弹性也为正且统计显著。以往基于纳税申报数据的时间序列研究，几乎未发现收入分布顶端以外人群的收入对税收作出反应的证据。本研究得出不同结果，是因为在考虑动态因素、预期，尤其是税收政策决策的内生性方面作出了额外努力。边际税率下调导致实际GDP增加、失业率下降。本研究还提供了证据，表明这些反应是由边际税率而非平均税率引起的。仅针对收入最高1%人群的反事实减税，对经济活动和该群体以外人群的收入具有短期正向效应，但会加剧税前收入不平等。针对收入最高1%人群以外纳税人的减税也会带来收入和经济活动的增加，但时滞更长。
Abstract
Using new narrative measures of exogenous variation in marginal tax rates associated with postwar tax reforms in the US, this study estimates short run tax elasticities of reported income of around 1.2 based on time series from 1946 to 2012.Elasticities are larger in the top 1% of the income distribution but are also positive and statistically significant for other income groups.Previous time series studies of tax returns data have found little evidence for income responses to taxes outside the top of the income distribution.The different results in this study arise because of additional efforts to account for dynamics, expectations and especially the endogeneity of tax policy decisions.Marginal rate cuts lead to increases in real GDP and declines in unemployment.This study also presents evidence that the responses are to marginal tax rates rather than average tax rates.Counterfactual tax cuts targeting the top 1% alone have short-run positive effects on economic activity and incomes outside of the top 1%, but increase inequality in pre-tax incomes.Cuts for taxpayers outside of the top 1% also lead to increases in incomes and economic activity, but with a longer delay.