束手后赢心：中国土地确权改革的政治影响

Journal of Development Economics · 2026 · [{"name": "Zhi-An Hu", "affiliation": ["Central University of Finance and Economics"]}, {"name": "Zhuo Nie", "affiliation": ["University of International Business and Economics"]}, {"name": "Jiaqi Zhao", "affiliation": ["Peking University"]}]

中文摘要

本研究考察土地改革能否约束地方国家代理人的掠夺性行为, 并进而增强普通民众对政权的支持和政策遵从。我们提供来自中国土地确权改革的经验证据, 该改革向农村家庭发放合法土地证书。利用改革自2011年起在各县交错(分批)推行这一事实, 我们发现土地确权显著提高了民众对政府的政治信任。尽管该改革并未产生显著的经济回报, 但它增强了农村居民针对土地征收寻求法律保护的能力, 从而限制了地方官员的自由裁量权。进一步分析表明, 该改革提高了对政府发起的社会保障项目的参与, 并使地方选举的参与度下降。

Abstract

This study examines whether land reform can constrain predatory behavior by local state agents and, in turn, enhance regime support and policy compliance among the general population. We offer empirical evidence from China's land titling reform that provided rural households with legal land certificates. Exploiting the staggered rollout of the reform across counties beginning in 2011, we find that land titling significantly increased political trust toward the government. Although the reform did not generate significant economic returns, it empowered rural residents to pursue legal protection against land expropriation, thereby limiting the discretionary authority of local officials. Additional analyses suggest that the reform led to greater participation in government-initiated social security programs and a decline in engagement with local elections.