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束手之后赢得民心:中国土地确权改革的政治影响

Winning hearts after tying hands: The political impact of land titling reform in China
Journal of Development Economics · 2026 · Zhi-An Hu、Zhuo Nie、Jiaqi Zhao

中文摘要

本研究考察土地改革能否约束地方国家代理人的掠夺性行为,进而提升普通民众对政权的支持与政策遵从。我们基于中国土地确权改革——该改革向农村住户颁发合法土地证书——提供了实证证据。利用该改革自2011年起在各县交错推进的制度安排,我们发现土地确权显著提高了民众对政府的政治信任。尽管该改革未产生显著的经济回报,但它增强了农村居民在面临土地征收时寻求法律保护的能力,从而限制了地方官员的自由裁量权。进一步分析表明,该改革使民众更多地参与政府发起的社会保障项目,同时降低了其参与地方选举的程度。

Abstract

This study examines whether land reform can constrain predatory behavior by local state agents and, in turn, enhance regime support and policy compliance among the general population. We offer empirical evidence from China's land titling reform that provided rural households with legal land certificates. Exploiting the staggered rollout of the reform across counties beginning in 2011, we find that land titling significantly increased political trust toward the government. Although the reform did not generate significant economic returns, it empowered rural residents to pursue legal protection against land expropriation, thereby limiting the discretionary authority of local officials. Additional analyses suggest that the reform led to greater participation in government-initiated social security programs and a decline in engagement with local elections.
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