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四方程新凯恩斯模型

The Four-Equation New Keynesian Model
Review of Economics and Statistics · 2021 · Eric Sims、Jing Cynthia Wu、Ji Zhang

中文摘要

本文构建了一个包含金融中介、短期和长期债券、信贷冲击,并为非常规货币政策提供作用空间的新凯恩斯模型。对数线性化后的模型可简化为四个方程:菲利普斯曲线和IS曲线,以及分别针对短期利率和央行长期债券投资组合(量化宽松,QE)的政策规则。信贷冲击和量化宽松均出现在IS曲线和菲利普斯曲线中。在均衡状态下,最优货币政策要求调整短期利率以抵消自然利率冲击,而使用量化宽松来抵消信贷市场扰动。使用量化宽松显著减轻了零利率下限具有约束力时所带来的成本。

Abstract

Abstract This paper develops a New Keynesian model featuring financial intermediation, short- and long-term bonds, credit shocks, and scope for unconventional monetary policy. The log-linearized model reduces to four equations: Phillips and IS curves, as well as policy rules for the short-term interest rate and the central bank's long-bond portfolio (QE). Credit shocks and QE appear in both the IS and Phillips curves. In equilibrium, optimal monetary policy entails adjusting the short-term interest rate to offset natural rate shocks but using QE to offset credit market disruptions. Use of QE significantly mitigates the costs of a binding zero lower bound.
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