The Equilibrium Impact of Agricultural Risk on Intermediate Inputs and Aggregate Productivity
中文摘要
本文考察发展中国家农业部门中间投入强度偏低的总量影响。在一个包含个体特有冲击、不完全市场和基本生存需求的动态一般均衡模型中，发展中国家的农户使用较少的中间投入，因为这可以限制其对无法通过保险覆盖的冲击的风险敞口。校准后的模型表明，如果市场完全，印度农业生产率将提高16%。这一提高由平均实际中间投入份额的增加，以及资源错配减少所带来的测得的全要素生产率（TFP）提高共同驱动，两者的增幅在数量上均十分重要。随后，本文拓展这些结果，考察风险在其他情境中的重要性。第一，引入保险使农业劳动生产率的跨国差异缩小14%。第二，扩大改良种子的推广规模以降低下行风险，会通过均衡效应将资源从富裕农户重新配置给贫困农户，从而降低不平等。与外推局部均衡影响所预期的结果相比，这种资源重新配置大幅提高了总体生产率。
Abstract
Abstract I consider the aggregate impact of low intermediate input intensity in the agricultural sector of developing countries. In a dynamic general equilibrium model with idiosyncratic shocks, incomplete markets, and subsistence requirements, farmers in developing countries use fewer intermediate inputs because it limits their exposure to uninsurable shocks. The calibrated model implies that Indian agricultural productivity would increase by 16% if markets were complete, driven by quantitatively important increases in both the average real intermediate share and measured TFP through lower misallocation. I then extend the results to consider the importance of risk in other contexts. First, the introduction of insurance decreases cross-country differences in agricultural labour productivity by 14%. Second, scaling the introduction of improved seeds to decrease downside risk reduces inequality by reallocating resources from rich to poor farmers via equilibrium effects. This reallocation substantially increases aggregate productivity relative to what would be expected from extrapolating the partial equilibrium impact.